Trainer Robert Garcia says Terence Crawford will dominate the first half of the fight against unified super middleweight champion Canelo Alvarez, winning “five or six” of the rounds in their clash in September.

Early Crawford Lead?

Robert states that Canelo (62-2-2, 39 KOs) will have to force himself to come on in the second half of the contest to play catch-up and break Crawford (41-0, 31 KOs) down.  If Garcia is correct with his prediction, it will be next to impossible for Alvarez to win. You don’t an old wolf like Crawford an early lead and count on being able to get back in the fight late.

With a five or six-round late, the Omaha, Nebraska native will jab, move, and tie up Canelo for the remainder of the fight to win a decision. In other words, Crawford will sit on his lead and frustrate the Mexican star Alvarez the way Floyd Mayweather Jr. did in his victory over him in 2013.

Canelo has to force the action early, punch holes through Crawford, and win rounds based on landing the harder shots. It only takes three or four hard punches from Alvarez for him to win rounds because he hits so much harder than his opponents.

We already saw that Crawford had no power in his recent move to 154 last August. It’s going to be much more noticeable with him moving up to 168 after another year out of the ring, stepping against the #1 super middleweight in the division. I don’t see it ending well for Crawford if Alvarez goes for the kill early on.

“Use your skills, speed, try to fight on the outside, and he does have skills. He is a very talented fighter,” said trainer Robert Garcia to K.O. Artist Sports when asked what Terence Crawford must do to defeat Canelo Alvarez in their still-to-be-announced fight in September.

“I think he’s [Bud Crawford] is going to put up some good rounds. Maybe at least five or six rounds. Eventually, in the later rounds, Canelo will start catching him and breaking him down. But I do see Crawford putting up [a good fight].

Second Half Surge

“Crawford, he’s a man. He’s pound-for-pound one of the best fighters in the world. He’s very talented, and I think he will put up a good fight. He [Canelo] has to [come on late] because in the first half, I think it’ll be Crawford’s fight,” said Robert.

I 100% disagree with Robert. Canelo will be the more effective fighter in the early rounds and will be pressuring a timid, ring-rusty, and old-looking Crawford through the first half. Robert is forgetting how strong Alvarez has looked in the first five rounds in his last two fights against the cruiserweight-sized 193-lb Edgar Berlanga and Jaime Munguia in 2024. Those two fighters are a lot younger, bigger, and more powerful than the soon-to-be 38-year-old Crawford.

Canelo has fallen off in the championship rounds from eight through twelve. That’s where he’s faded and allowed his lesser opposition to steal rounds they otherwise wouldn’t have.

“I might be wrong also because Canelo is very talented. Let’s not take that away from him,” said Robert.  “I do see Crawford taking the first few rounds and the first half of the fight, and then Canelo forcing himself to pressure and try to dominate that way.”

The Power Factor

If Canelo can continue to force the action against Bud in the second half, the fight will be a complete mismatch like Alvarez’s one-sided victory over former undisputed 154 lb champion Jermell Charlo on September 30, 2023. Alvarez is NOT going to give away the first six rounds against Crawford. That’s when the Mexican superstar will be at his strongest, most dangerous point of the fight.

Even Gennadiy Golovkin didn’t go into the teeth of Canelo’s offense early on in their three fights. He was mostly staying on the outside, jabbing and throwing single shots. Not surprisingly, the judges didn’t give him credit for that approach because he wasn’t landing the same kind of clean shots Alvarez was and didn’t take chances. Crawford can’t beat Canelo by jabbing and staying on the outside.

“Knowing that he might be a little bit behind, he might be forced to do it. He’s got the strength, he’s got the power, he’s got the skills to do that too. He’s done it many times before,” said Robert.